4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to MIN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model