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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 60

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model