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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 16:05 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYJ
56.1%
DEN
43.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.234 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (DEN): -0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NYJ crossing 2 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYJ

Bruce Carter LB Out Groin
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Brian Winters G Questionable Abdomen

DEN

Ronald Leary G Out Back
Paxton Lynch QB Out Ankle
Adam Gotsis DE Questionable Illness
Domata Peko DT Questionable Knee
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 0
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 FG DEN (9:05) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 0 – DEN 3
  • Q1 07:22 TD DEN (7:22) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-J.Martin]. Penalty on NYJ-21-M.Claiborne, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NYJ 0 – DEN 9
  • Q2 00:37 FG DEN (:37) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 0 – DEN 13
  • Q3 06:34 TD DEN (6:34) 32-A.Janovich up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – DEN 19
  • Q4 11:39 FG DEN (11:39) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYJ 0 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (9:05) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to DEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 49 for 12 yards (32-J.Burris; 42-T.Hennessy). NYJ-42-T.Hennessy was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to DEN 26, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 37 for 11 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 40%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas ran ob at NYJ 40 for 5 yards.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (:37) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to DEN 8, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 32 for 24 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to DEN 33, Center-83-E.Tomlinson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NYJ 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 51%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete short right to 10-J.Kearse.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (11:39) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DEN 27, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 35 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to DEN 24, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 31 for 7 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 11 for -1 yards (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to DEN 42, Center-83-E.Tomlinson, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to NYJ 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to DEN 42, Center-83-E.Tomlinson, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.