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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to DEN 26, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 37 for 11 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP