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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 45

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas ran ob at NYJ 40 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model