4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 35

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:37) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model