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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to DEN 33, Center-83-E.Tomlinson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model