Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 62

Denver Broncos 20 – New York Jets 0

(3:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NYJ 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.42 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model