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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 41

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete short right to 10-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.11 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model