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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 22

Denver Broncos 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model