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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to DEN 27, Center-83-E.Tomlinson. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 35 for 8 yards (23-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model