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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 11

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model