Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(13:28) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to KC 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model