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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

OAK
42.0%
KC
58.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.159 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.135 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

OAK

Jon Feliciano G Out Concussion
Cory James LB Doubtful Knee
Jihad Ward DE Doubtful Foot
David Amerson CB Questionable Foot
Denico Autry DE Questionable Hand
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Ankle
Jamize Olawale RB Questionable Ankle
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Hip

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Foot
Eric Murray S Out Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 15
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:27 FG KC (9:27) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. OAK 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 10:51 FG KC (10:51) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. OAK 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 01:45 FG KC (1:45) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. OAK 0 – KC 16
  • Q3 11:05 FG KC (11:05) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. OAK 0 – KC 19
  • Q3 03:30 TD KC (3:30) (Shotgun) 35-C.West right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 25
  • Q4 08:58 TD LV (8:58) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – KC 26
  • Q4 07:17 TD LV (7:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-T.Hali]. OAK 13 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:39) 7-M.King punts 31 yards to LV 48, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-33-D.Washington. PENALTY on KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 48.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 59%

    (9:27) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 43%

    (7:08) 7-M.King punts 27 yards to KC 14, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:28) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to KC 37, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (10:51) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (1:45) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:26) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to KC 25, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 25 for no gain (39-K.McGill).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (11:05) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:01) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 33 for 4 yards (33-D.Washington).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (6:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LV 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:26) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to KC 49, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill ran ob at LV 38 for 13 yards.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 16%

    (15:00) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. LV-39-K.McGill was injured during the play.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (11:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 13 yards to LV 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-42-A.Sherman. Punt was deflected by S.Calhoun so no running into kicker penalty.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (7:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-J.Cook for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-T.Hali].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.