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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model