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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LV 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model