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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 95

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to KC 49, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-T.Hill ran ob at LV 38 for 13 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 95, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model