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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model