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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 13 yards to LV 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-42-A.Sherman. Punt was deflected by S.Calhoun so no running into kicker penalty.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model