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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 7-M.King punts 27 yards to KC 14, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP