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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to SEA 33, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP