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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 16:25 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

SEA
34.8%
JAX
65.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.229 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
JAX 26
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Oday Aboushi G Out Shoulder
Kam Chancellor S Out Neck
Nazair Jones DT Out Ankle
Dion Jordan DE Questionable Neck

JAX

Allen Hurns WR Out Ankle
Telvin Smith LB Questionable Concussion
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
JAX 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:30 FG JAX (6:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. SEA 0 – JAX 3
  • Q3 12:07 TD JAX (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – JAX 9
  • Q3 08:33 FG SEA (8:33) 7-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – JAX 10
  • Q3 07:38 TD SEA (7:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – JAX 10
  • Q3 07:32 TD JAX (7:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 84-K.Cole for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. SEA 10 – JAX 16
  • Q3 05:40 TD JAX (5:40) 27-L.Fournette left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – JAX 23
  • Q4 10:07 FG JAX (10:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. SEA 10 – JAX 27
  • Q4 10:00 TD SEA (10:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-P.Richardson for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – JAX 27
  • Q4 04:09 FG JAX (4:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. SEA 17 – JAX 30
  • Q4 03:52 TD SEA (3:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – JAX 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:51) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to SEA 33, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (10:31) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to JAX 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (6:30) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:59) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 43 for 4 yards (52-T.Garvin). PENALTY on JAX-59-C.Phillips, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 39. Penalty on JAX-25-P.Thompson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 60%

    (14:44) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to JAX 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for 12 yards (9-J.Ryan). PENALTY on JAX-55-L.McCray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at JAX 14. Penalty on JAX-23-T.Patmon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to SEA 28, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for -3 yards (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:10) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 3 yards (55-L.McCray).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (:20) 7-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (8:33) 7-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:58) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to JAX 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-J.Mickens to SEA 1 for 72 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 69%

    (10:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (4:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:48) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to SEA 37, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 42 for 5 yards.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:19) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 89-D.Baldwin [93-C.Campbell].