Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(4:10) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to SEA 18, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 3 yards (55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.15 EP
52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model