4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to JAX 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-20-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP