Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(2:48) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to SEA 37, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 42 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model