Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 30

(2:19) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 89-D.Baldwin [93-C.Campbell].

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.73 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP