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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:44) 3-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-40-T.Bohanon.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP