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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to HOU 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 33 for -1 yards (19-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.54 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.62 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP