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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SF
51.5%
HOU
48.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Tom Savage (HOU) -0.150 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.409 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SF

Trenton Brown T Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Alfred Blue RB Out Concussion
Julien Davenport T Out Shoulder
Jelani Jenkins LB Out Concussion
Braxton Miller WR Out Concussion
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 26
–
HOU 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG HOU (9:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. SF 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 06:36 FG SF (6:36) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – HOU 3
  • Q2 02:39 TD SF (2:39) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – HOU 3
  • Q2 00:59 TD HOU (:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Yates pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – HOU 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG SF (:02) 9-R.Gould 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – HOU 9
  • Q3 12:18 TD HOU (12:18) 2-T.Yates pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – HOU 15
  • Q3 08:15 FG SF (8:15) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 16 – HOU 16
  • Q3 01:58 TD SF (1:58) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – HOU 16
  • Q4 03:54 FG SF (3:54) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 26 – HOU 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to HOU 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 33 for -1 yards (19-A.Robinson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 63%

    (9:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (2:52) 26-L.Miller up the middle to SF 42 for -2 yards (90-E.Mitchell, 35-E.Reid).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to HOU 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 13, and recovers at HOU 13.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:19) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to HOU 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 11 for 3 yards (27-D.McCoil). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 11.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to SF 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (6:36) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to SF 32, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (8:15) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to SF 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 15 for 5 yards (51-D.Cole).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:32) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to SF 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-T.Taylor to SF 26 for 10 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on SF-27-D.McCoil, Illegal Blindside Block, 13 yards, enforced at SF 26.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 24 yards to HOU 40, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 36%

    (11:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to HOU 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 21 for 1 yard (19-A.Robinson).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

    (3:54) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 70%

    (1:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.