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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model