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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model