4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 37

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model