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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 6 at the 48
Houston Texans 16 – San Francisco 49ers 23
What Actually Happened
(11:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.16 EP
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
- 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
KICK
-0.74 EP
- 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT
-0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.10 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
