Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Houston Texans 16

(6:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to HOU 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White to HOU 21 for 1 yard (19-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.98 EP
77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model