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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 34

Houston Texans 16 – San Francisco 49ers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model