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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 40
Houston Texans 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(2:52) 26-L.Miller up the middle to SF 42 for -2 yards (90-E.Mitchell, 35-E.Reid).
The Three Options
GO
+1.87 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
- 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK
+0.15 EP
- 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
