Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 3

(1:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to HOU 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-D.White MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 13, and recovers at HOU 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model