Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden pushed ob at ARI 32 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates, 41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model