Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Blaine Gabbert (ARI): -0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TEN offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- ARI offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- TEN defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- ARI defense: -0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
TEN
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 07:23 TD TEN (7:23) 22-D.Henry left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – ARI 0
- Q3 09:41 FG ARI (9:41) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 3
- Q3 04:48 FG ARI (4:48) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 6
- Q4 06:03 FG ARI (6:03) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 9
- Q4 03:50 FG ARI (3:50) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden pushed ob at ARI 32 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates, 41-B.Trawick).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 38%
(8:34) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:51) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to TEN 27, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 44 for 17 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-50-G.Martin was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-36-L.Sims, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(14:10) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(12:30) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:14) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to ARI 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 31 for 4 yards (89-P.Supernaw, 50-N.Palmer).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:01) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 26 for 14 yards (35-E.Penny).
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Q3 ARI 4th & 16 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 80%
(9:41) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 65Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(7:35) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny). Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 35 for no gain (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(4:48) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%
(12:08) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 69%
(10:11) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 15 for 9 yards (41-B.Trawick).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(6:03) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 19% p(FG) 93%
(3:50) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(2:11) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden to ARI 25 for 10 yards (41-B.Trawick).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:41) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to TEN 22, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 22 for no gain (13-Ja.Brown, 35-E.Penny).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 78 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:11) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 25-A.Jackson (32-T.Mathieu). Penalty on TEN-81-J.Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
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