TEN @ ARI — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Mularkey

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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians

Sunday 2017-12-10 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

TEN

54.8%

ARI

45.2%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

ARI offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
Blaine Gabbert (ARI): -0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts
TEN offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
TEN defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22

–

ARI 20

Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

TEN

Derrick Morgan LB Out Knee

ARI

John Brown WR Out Toe

Adrian Peterson RB Out Neck

Josh Mauro DT Questionable Ankle

J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Knee

Corey Peters DT Questionable Ankle

Patrick Peterson CB Questionable Hamstring

Jared Veldheer T Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 7

–

ARI 12

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 07:23 TD TEN (7:23) 22-D.Henry left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 6 – ARI 0
Q3 09:41 FG ARI (9:41) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 3
Q3 04:48 FG ARI (4:48) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 6
Q4 06:03 FG ARI (6:03) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 9
Q4 03:50 FG ARI (3:50) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. TEN 7 – ARI 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:36) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden pushed ob at ARI 32 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates, 41-B.Trawick).
Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 38%

(8:34) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(3:51) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to TEN 27, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 44 for 17 yards (10-B.Golden). ARI-50-G.Martin was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-36-L.Sims, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 27.
Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(14:10) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(12:30) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to 50, Center-49-J.Drescher, downed by ARI.
Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(3:14) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33%

(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to ARI 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 31 for 4 yards (89-P.Supernaw, 50-N.Palmer).
Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(1:01) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 26 for 14 yards (35-E.Penny).
Q3 ARI 4th & 16 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 80%

(9:41) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 65

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70%

(7:35) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 36 for 1 yard (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny). Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) Direct snap to 14-E.Weems. 14-E.Weems up the middle to TEN 35 for no gain (57-J.Bynes, 35-E.Penny).
Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(4:48) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%

(12:08) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP

p(convert) 69%

(10:11) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 15 for 9 yards (41-B.Trawick).
Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

(6:03) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 19% p(FG) 93%

(3:50) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.
Q4 TEN 4th & 18 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(2:11) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 10-B.Golden to ARI 25 for 10 yards (41-B.Trawick).
Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(1:41) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to TEN 22, Center-49-J.Drescher. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 22 for no gain (13-Ja.Brown, 35-E.Penny).
Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 78 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(1:11) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 25-A.Jackson (32-T.Mathieu). Penalty on TEN-81-J.Smith, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.