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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 4-P.Dawson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP