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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 47

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 2-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-49-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model