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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 15 for 9 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP