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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model