4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model