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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model