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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 7-B.Gabbert left guard to WAS 43 for 1 yard (90-E.Hood; 64-A.Francis). QB sneak

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.38 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model