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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

ARI
30.4%
WAS
69.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Blaine Gabbert (ARI): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Gabe Martin LB Out Hamstring
Adrian Peterson RB Out Neck
Earl Watford G Out Ankle
John Brown WR Out Toe
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Illness
Josh Mauro DT Questionable Ankle
Corey Peters DT Questionable Ankle

WAS

Zach Brown LB Out Illness
Montae Nicholson S Out Concussion
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee
Ryan Anderson LB Questionable Ankle
Ryan Grant WR Questionable Ankle
Maurice Harris WR Questionable Concussion
Terrell McClain DE Questionable Toe
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle
Chase Roullier C Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 15
–
WAS 20

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:36 TD WAS (13:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 80-J.Crowder for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 03:52 FG ARI (3:52) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 3 – WAS 7
  • Q2 13:39 TD WAS (13:39) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 39-K.Bibbs for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – WAS 13
  • Q2 07:38 FG ARI (7:38) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 6 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG ARI (:04) 4-P.Dawson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 9 – WAS 14
  • Q3 13:39 FG ARI (13:39) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 12 – WAS 14
  • Q3 04:27 FG WAS (4:27) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. ARI 12 – WAS 17
  • Q4 11:18 FG ARI (11:18) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 15 – WAS 17
  • Q4 04:35 FG WAS (4:35) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. ARI 15 – WAS 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 88%

    (3:52) 4-P.Dawson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:07) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to ARI 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 12 for 1 yard (47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:20) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-10-B.Golden.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 45%

    (9:57) 7-B.Gabbert left guard to WAS 43 for 1 yard (90-E.Hood; 64-A.Francis). QB sneak

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%

    (7:38) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:34) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 86%

    (:52) 7-B.Gabbert up the middle to WAS 22 for 2 yards (92-S.McGee).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:04) 4-P.Dawson 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (13:39) 4-P.Dawson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:12) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to ARI 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 31 for 9 yards (22-D.Everett, 31-F.Moreau).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (10:39) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-36-B.Baker.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (4:27) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:34) 2-A.Lee punts 62 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 21 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (11:18) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:32) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ARI 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 16 for 4 yards (38-J.Holsey).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:02) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to WAS 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder to ARI 44 for 9 yards (10-B.Golden).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (4:35) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:12) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to ARI 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 48 for 15 yards (57-N.Sundberg). ARI-10-B.Golden was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald (36-D.Swearinger). PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced between downs.