4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 17

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-P.Dawson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP