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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 24
Arizona Cardinals 6 – Washington Commanders 14
What Actually Happened
(:52) 7-B.Gabbert up the middle to WAS 22 for 2 yards (92-S.McGee).
The Three Options
GO
+2.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.01 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP
KICK
+2.07 EP
- 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
- 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
