Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Washington Commanders 17

(3:34) 2-A.Lee punts 62 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 21 for 9 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model